Create a concept a few years ago called the hype curve. The curve shows the five stages of any idea if it goes like this.

All ideas start with the trigger and then get more and more buzz around in the press and in the general culture. Eventually they hit the peak of inflated expectations. That's when the expectations on the technology are so inflated that anything that is even possible looks like a disappointment. For that reason the next phase is called the trough of disillusionment. After the trough, cooler heads reign and the real potential and capabilities of the technology are teased out. Finally comes the plateau of productivity… Which is the long. Incremental innovation that happens as an idea matures.

I'm thinking of this tonight because Gartner just came out today and said that the Internet things, the thing I'm working so hard on right now… Is at its peak of inflated expectations.

That's either good news or bad news. The peak is something that you eventually have to welcome because there is so much hyperbole and exaggeration around any new technology that it can't keep getting worse forever. This is the point that people start to doubt the technology.

The bad news is it's like a roller coaster ahead. Voices of I told you so will now start,… earning outlooks will start to decrease, startups will start to fail… It all sounds bad, but it really isn't. Expectations can't keep increasing forever, the sooner the real value of the technology can start to be demonstrated the better off everyone will be. For me, this is one of the fun parts where the good ideas and bad idea are separated. I think were working on some good ideas so I think I'm going to enjoy this.

Just hang onto your seats it's going to be a bumpy ride !

Nigt all,nite sam

-me

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